Loot Box Drop Rates

[GazzaGarratt 11,006]

This has been around for a few days and I've been meaning to post stuff about this as I think it will lead to other games being revealed including Destiny.

 

The Chinese Government’s legislation on online games containing loot boxes rules that gamers who purchase these titles know exactly what they’ll be getting. In turn, publishers must comply with the laws and reveal the drop rates for said loot boxes. Blizzard has been the first to comply with the Chinese laws, turning over the Overwatch loot box drop rates.

 

You can see the probabilities revealed for the loot boxes below:

 

For every loot box awarded to players, they will obtain at least one blue (rare) item. The average drop rate for purple (epic) items is one for every 5.5 loot boxes. The average drop rate for orange (legendary) items is one for every 13.5 loot boxes.

 

There are some really insightful mathematic geeks on reddit that have done some work into how likely getting 4 epics are. When I get chance I'll post some more info later on it.

 

It's good to understand this for timed events so you know you'll need approx 5 to 6 boxes to get an epic drop and that favourite skin you're hoping for and whether or not you need to buy with your own credits as you won't have the time left.

[The3rdWalker 1,268]

I wouldn't expect these rates to be the same across every server/ region. The Chinese government mandated it, not EU, UK, NA so the formulas may be different. 

[GazzaGarratt 11,006]

6 minutes ago, PlasticGaming said:

I wouldn't expect these rates to be the same across every server/ region. The Chinese government mandated it, not EU, UK, NA so the formulas may be different. 

 

Good point Rob. Didn't think about that. Algorithms more than likely will be different albeit subtle changes.

 

Either way it should be a good marker for what to expect. Has anyone seen a loot box with 3 or 4 epics? Most I have seen is 2 epic skins for me.

 

From what I recall in the reddit equations the probability is something like 0.000001%.

[Greboth 2,720]

I suppose it makes sense to mandate the odds are released, especially in game like OW where you by them, as it is in effect gambling.

 

Stats and odds are horrible to work out but I get it to a 0.00003% chance but not sure it's right.  Whatever though, statistically speaking it probably has happened a few times when you think of the number of copies sold and the amount of loot boxes you get.  There must have been 10's of millions if not 100's of millions of loot boxes earned/bought.

 

Edit: Or it could be a 0.0007% chance? I think I was right above though.

[Plumbers Crack 4,055]

Pretty small odds either way!

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